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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a resolute position on Ukraine. Following delivering threats of "significant ramifications" last August if Russia's president persisted blocking ceasefire negotiations, the former president eventually imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian primary energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

But, with his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, reportedly drafted by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukrainian or European involvement, he has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that same autonomy. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business background, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying giving Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will please the leader. However, Putin's invasion is not only about controlling a charred region of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

Although keeping in position the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would force the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been unable to capture in exceeding a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions severely undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched defensive positions that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Putin a open way to the capital in case he eventually choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would make additional hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to cut the size of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's initiative places no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "Every Nazi ideology and actions must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes Russia commit not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken similar agreements in the past – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a handback of captured land in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community trust Putin on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western security guarantees. Although the initiative warns of a "strong coordinated defense action" in case Russia resume its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars range from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, presumptively led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Russia from restoring his diminished forces, restocking, and attacking again.

World Reaction

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would grant the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against renewed invasion – the success of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of alliance members, such as the US administration, to respond through arms to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not